From Global Trade to Global Economic Warfare. New Realities of Trump Presidency 2.0
What does Trump’s potential return to the White House mean for the global economy?
GBSB Global Business School tackled this pressing question during its latest Global Pulse Talk on May 5, with a live webinar featuring Professor Erkin Sali Koray, an international expert in supply chain strategy and risk management.
The session opened with a strong reminder of GBSB Global’s mission: to equip tomorrow’s business leaders with the knowledge and tools to navigate disruption with confidence. Professor Koray, whose experience spans sectors and countries-from Italy to Switzerland, healthcare to FMCG-delivered a rigorous analysis of the trade landscape likely to emerge under a second Trump administration. His insights illuminated not only the policy changes at stake, but also the operational and strategic imperatives for companies around the world.
From Business to Battlefield: Tariffs as an Instrument of Economic Warfare
Professor Koray’s central argument was clear: Trump’s trade policies, particularly his aggressive use of tariffs, reflect a business-first ideology that treats international relations as hard-nosed commercial negotiations. These tariffs are not just taxes on imports-they are tools of economic warfare. Unlike sanctions, which impose immediate and non-negotiable trade cuts, tariffs leave room for leverage, retaliation, and, ultimately, profit.
While sanctions remain the blunt instrument of choice in foreign policy-more than 20,000 have been imposed on Russia alone-Trump’s preference for tariffs signals a shift toward a more complex, tactical model of economic confrontation. China, for example, faced tariffs as high as 145 percent, prompting swift retaliation and escalating global tensions.
The Most Protectionist U.S. Trade Strategy Since the 1930s
According to Koray, the scope of Trump’s tariffs is unprecedented in modern U.S. history. Blanket tariffs targeting nearly all trading partners, with the exception of select allies such as Mexico and Canada, amount to a strategic recalibration of the U.S. economic posture. These actions are not just about revenue – they are about reasserting U.S. industrial sovereignty.
Indeed, one of the administration’s stated goals is to revitalize domestic manufacturing. Trump’s tariffs aim to pull production away from Chinese-dominated supply chains and reposition American companies as globally competitive, without reliance on imports. This is already catalyzing shifts. Apple and Tesla, among others, are increasingly reshoring or nearshoring operations to the U.S., Mexico, India, or Vietnam.
Deglobalization and the Rise of the Regional Supply Chain
The COVID-19 pandemic further underscored the fragility of globalized supply chains. With geopolitical risk rising and tariffs destabilizing traditional trade flows, many multinational firms are recalibrating toward regionalism. This is not merely a trend; it is an operational imperative.
Koray highlighted how countries such as Thailand and Indonesia are aggressively upgrading their infrastructure to attract diverted manufacturing investments. Eastern Europe, too, is emerging as a strategic base for nearshoring European supply chains. This decentralization marks the beginning of a deglobalized, multi-polar trade ecosystem—what Koray likens to a “second Cold War.”
A New Cold War: Strategic Alliances, Economic Blocs, and Cyber Frontlines
Professor Koray described the current geopolitical shift as a tectonic realignment. On one side: the U.S., EU, and NATO allies. On the other: China, Russia, and the BRICS-led Belt and Road Initiative. The result? A fractured global economy increasingly defined by exclusive economic zones, cyber warfare, and retaliatory trade policies.
While this landscape poses clear threats to global integration, it also opens up space for entrepreneurial maneuvering. Nations caught in the middle-particularly those in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Eastern Europe-have a rare opportunity to reposition themselves as indispensable links in reconfigured supply chains.
Solutions and Strategies: From Risk Awareness to Resilience
So how should today’s business leaders respond?
Koray offered actionable frameworks for navigating these changes:
- Invest in Data and Cybersecurity: Supply chain professionals must now serve as data analysts and digital security strategists. Future-proofing operations requires end-to-end visibility, real-time risk detection, and cyber resilience.
- Leverage Local Supply Networks: SMEs and entrepreneurs can benefit from relocalizing value chains. In many cases, local suppliers can offer greater reliability than transcontinental partners-especially as political disruptions escalate.
- Negotiate with Flexibility: As countries like India and South Korea have shown, responding to tariffs with negotiation rather than retaliation can provide access to new energy deals or project investments.
- Adapt Business Education: GBSB Global remains committed to redesigning its curriculum to reflect this new paradigm – equipping students not only with traditional business acumen, but also with geopolitical fluency and digital agility.
Conclusion: Preparing the Next Generation of Business Leaders
As the conversation drew to a close, Professor Koray returned to the broader mission of educating adaptable, informed, and strategically minded business leaders who can turn volatility into value.
In the face of rising protectionism and a redefined global order, GBSB Global remains committed to fostering dialogue, disseminating actionable insights, and preparing students to thrive in uncertain times.
Stay tuned for future editions of the Global Pulse Talks – where global disruption meets global education.